OECD Report Spins Stats
Posted: July 18, 2008
Statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth.
While the report out of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this week found that biofuel production “has a limited impact on reducing greenhouse gases and improving energy security, and has a significant impact on world crop prices” the statistics in the report actually tell a different story.
For example, OECD credits ethanol produced from corn starch with a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if using natural gas, a 50% reduction in GHG if the facility is powered by biomass, and 80% for sugarcane ethanol. That’s better than ZERO for fossil fuels - certainly not “limited.”
In addition, according to a review of the report by the Renewable Fuels Association:
The modeling included in the report suggests that a 28% drop in world oil prices would cause a 12% reduction in world coarse grain prices ($0.75 per bushel in the case of corn today), underscoring the fact that skyrocketing oil prices are the largest driver behind increasing grain prices. By contrast, removing biofuel mandates like the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) would reduce coarse grain prices by just 1% ($0.06 per bushel of corn). Even abandoning all biofuels policies would only yield an average coarse grain price reduction of 7% ($0.45 per bushel).
The OECD report itself says the “impact of current biofuel policies on world crop prices, largely through increased demand for cereals and vegetable oils, is significant but should not be overestimated.” Guess that depends on your definition of “significant.” Sounds like oil prices have a much more significant impact which is consistently being not only UNDERestimated but virtually ignored.
Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are much more pliable.