Corn for Ethanol Usage May be Overestimated
Posted: September 16, 2008
The Renewable Fuels Association thinks that USDA is overestimating the amount of corn that will be consumed for ethanol production in 2008/09.
The September USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand report lowered feed and residual use for corn by 100 million bushels compared to the August report, to 5.1 billion bushels. Ending stocks were also be lowered, by 115 million bushels, to 1.018 billion bushels. However, the estimate for ethanol use of corn is unchanged at 4.1 billion bushels, or about one third of this year’s total production.
RFA thinks that’s too much, especially when it does not consider that every 56-pound bushel of corn that enters the dry mill ethanol process yields 2.8 gallons of fuel ethanol and 18 pounds of distillers grains. When the distillers grains feed is considered, the net usage of the 2008 corn crop would actually be more like 22%.
According to an analysis done by RFA, they believe that USDA is overstating gross demand for corn for 2008/2009.
Based on USDA’s calculations, American ethanol biorefineries will produce approximately 11.3 billion gallons of ethanol between September 1, 2008 and August 31, 2009 (the corn crop marketing year). Given current ethanol market dynamics and the requirements of the Renewable Fuels Standard (which calls for 10.5 billion gallons of starch-based “conventional” ethanol use in calendar year 2009), it is unlikely that ethanol production will reach the levels estimated by USDA in that time frame.
RFA also notes that USDA overestimated corn use for ethanol in the 2007/08 marketing year by 400 million bushels.
m v krishna rao Said,
September 17, 2008 @ 6:59 am
30 PERCENT OF THE CORN USED IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION WILL COMEBACK TO MARKET AS DISTILLED GRAIN WITH 25 PERCENT OF PROTIEN AND 12 PERCENT OF FAT (3 TIMES OF THE REAL CORN PROTEINS AND FATS ETC…)FOR CATTLE FEED. THE FOREX SAVING AND VALUE ADDITION IS MORE IN ETHANOL MAKING AND MARKETING IN U S A. U S A IS EXPORTING NEARLY 5 BILLION BUSHELS OF CORN WHICH CAN ALSO BE USED TO PRODUCE ETHANOL IN U S A. FOR RURAL INDUSTRIALISTION AND GENERATION OF EMPLOYMENT.
FOOD AND FUEL DEBATE IS IRRELAVENT AS U S A IS PRODUCING MORE FOOD AND EXPORTING NEARLY TO 100 COUNTRIES.
m v krishna rao Said,
September 25, 2008 @ 6:31 am
U S A CAN GROW MORE OF RICE AND WHEAT AND LESS OF COTTON AND SOYABEAN WITH THE AVAILABLE LAND AREA TO GET MORE REVENUE FROM THE SAME ACRE OF LAND. SIMILARLY, BROKEN RICE AND LUSTER WHEAT(UNFIT FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION) CAN BE USED FOR ETHANOL PRODUCTION. U S A IS GIFTED WITH LARGE FERTILE LAND AREA. AND PLENTY OF CATTLE FARM MANURE (SUBSTITUTE OF HIGH COST FERTLISER OF UREA,DAP)TO APPLY IN THE LANDS FOR HIGHER YIELDS . HEAVY INVESTMENT IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE WILL HELP RUARAL FARM INDUSTRIALISATION,EMPLOYMENT AND PROSPERITY. THE NEED OF THE HOUR IS TO PRODUCE MORE TO BUMPER PROSPERITY.