Higher Corn Numbers in Latest USDA Report
Posted: July 10, 2009
Most of the corn numbers in USDA’s supply demand report released Friday morning are up, up and away. The only lower outlook numbers are food, seed and industrial use – and prices.
USDA is calling this year’s corn crop the second largest on record and the soybean crop the largest ever.
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected higher this month with higher expected beginning stocks and production for corn. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected at 12.3 billion bushels, up 355 million from last month as higher estimated area from the June 30 Acreage report boosts production prospects. Corn supplies are projected at 14.1 million bushels, up 335 million bushels from 2008/09. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is raised 50 million bushels as increased supplies and lower prices are expected to boost feeding demand. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 35 million bushels reflecting lower expected use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are raised 50 million bushels as lower prices increase the competitiveness of U.S. supplies in the world market. Ending stocks are projected at 1.6 million bushels, up 460 million from last month, but down 220 million from 2008/09. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price for corn is projected at $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel, down 55 cents on both ends of the range.
Analyst Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions says probably the biggest surprise in the report was no increase in the yield estimate from last month for either corn (153.4 bu/ac) or soybeans (42.6 bu/ac). “I think some of us believe we will see in future reports that yield per acre being increased as we’ve had very good growing conditions, lot of moisture and crop condition ratings very high,” Hoops said in a conference call this morning for the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. “So we do look for this crop to grow in subsequent reports.”
Hoops says if we have very high ratings for corn during the pollination time, which is coming up in the next week or so, we can expect a “very large corn crop.”