Weather Taking Toll on Corn

USDA lowered its forecast for 2009 corn production in the latest report out today, due to lower yields. Despite the decrease, yields are still expected to be a record and production is still expected to be the second highest on record.

Corn production is forecast at 12.9 billion bushels, down 1 percent from last month but 7 percent higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 162.9 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from October but 9.0 bushels above last year. Despite the drop in yield from October, this yield will be the highest on record if realized. Total production will be second highest on record, only behind 2007. Within the Corn Belt, forecasted yields in Minnesota and Wisconsin increased, while
Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan yields decreased.

High moisture, low test weights, and mold issues are getting to be major concerns throughout the Midwest. According to USDA, just 37 percent of the corn had been combined as of Sunday, compared to 82 percent average and even well behind last year’s slow harvest which was 69 percent complete at this time in 2008.

Analyst Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions told reporters on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange crop call that many farmers are talking about leaving their corn in the field. “There’s a lot of producers in the northern part of the corn belt, North Dakota in particular, that are likely to leave the crop sit throughout the winter because of the concerns about dry down and the cost of drying the corn down manually.”

Corn yield champion Kip Cullers of Purdy, Missouri told me that was a possibility for him. “We started combining corn August 12 and its now November and I’ve never combined corn in my entire life in the month of November,” Kip said. “I think we’re actually cut some corn in January, if the ground ever freezes up.”

Iowa Corn Growers Association and Corn Promotion Board farmer leaders met by conference call last week to talk about harvest conditions including wet weather, slow harvest, and grain quality. They expressed concern about the situation, but overall confidence in getting the harvest complete. “Corn growers have a different set of weather conditions to deal with each season,” said Gary Woodley, a farmer from Clarion on the board. “Each year brings challenges, but I have never met a corn grower who wasn’t up to the challenge to bring in the crop.”

Grain quality specialist Dr. Charles Hurburgh with Iowa State University recommends that corn coming out of the field with visible mold should be segregated and samples should be saved for testing. “Right now, we are seeing some mold, more in hail damaged areas,” he said. “We will continue to monitor the crop as harvest rolls on.”

Mother Nature never fails to make farming a challenge.