USDA Final 2011 Corn Numbers

USDA’s final crop summary for 2011 released last week surprised many by showing an increase the average corn yield by a half bushel per acre and slightly more harvested acres to come up with a final total of 12.4 billion bushels, up a little bit from the November forecast and not too much lower than the 2010 crop.

“Despite lost acres and a 2011 yield that’s 5.6 bushels below the 2010 average, the corn crop itself is only one percentage point below last year’s number,” said National Corn Growers Association President Garry Niemeyer of Illinois. In comparison, final soybean production for 2011 was down 8% from 2010, sorghum and cotton were both down 13%, and rice was down 24%.

The slightly higher corn production means increased U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 slightly over the December estimate, according to the World Agricultural Supply Demand Report. Worldwide, coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 remained almost unchanged this month as higher corn production in the United States, Ukraine, EU-27, and Russia is mostly offset by lower expected corn production in Argentina and the lower sorghum production estimate for the United States.

On the use side of the equation, exports were increased by 50 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of sales to date and reduced prospects for Argentina. Ending stocks are projected 2 million bushels lower at 846 million bushels.

What this all meant for corn futures at the end of last week was a big drop, but most analysts expect the market to rebound quickly as demand remains strong.