The iLUC analysis by CARB for the LCFS was based, in part, on EWG recommendations and included GTAP, AEZ-EF, and GREET models, input from EPA and USDA, consideration of RFS2, and also looked at contribution of DDGS and significance of YPE.
Watching a webcast of a California Air Resources Board (CARB) workshop this past week detailing preliminary staff results on Indirect Land Use Change (iLUC) models and analysis for the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) was sometimes like reading teen text messages. OMG, like, I was LOL and SMH at these PPL wondering WTH?
The 84 slide presentation of details on how CARB arrived at the values they are now proposing for corn ethanol, sugarcane ethanol, soy biodiesel, canola biodiesel and sorghum ethanol was interspersed with dozens of questions from stakeholders and scientists present or listening in on the webcast. An overriding theme of the entire four hours was “uncertainty” – which pretty well sums up the whole concept of indirect land use change. Nearly a quarter of the presentation was devoted to “Evaluation of Uncertainty” and “Why Results Vary Between Studies.” Many times points were made that there is no scientific consensus on certain values, or that some variables may not be taken into account.
I thought it was interesting and had to wonder why they decided to represent indirect Land Use Change with a little i for indirect. Maybe it’s supposed to be like iPhone or iPad. But there was even uncertainty on how to pronounce it as a word by those at the workshop – i-Luck, i-Look or i-Luke.
CARB is asking for feedback on the preliminary presentation by the end of March and plans to schedule one or two additional workshops in the coming months before completing an Independent Academic Review and presenting final report to the board in the fall. “Thank you for attending the LCFS opening ceremonies,” said CARB Transportation Fuels Branch Chief Michael Waugh at the conclusion of the workshop.
It would be funny if what CARB ultimately decides about iLUC would not have such an important impact on the use of corn ethanol in the state that uses the most motor fuel nationwide. I’m no scientist, but in IMHO, it’s just NAGI.