Posted By Cindy July 10, 2009
Most of the corn numbers in USDA’s supply demand report released Friday morning are up, up and away. The only lower outlook numbers are food, seed and industrial use – and prices.
USDA is calling this year’s corn crop the second largest on record and the soybean crop the largest ever.
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected higher this month with higher expected beginning stocks and production for corn. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected at 12.3 billion bushels, up 355 million from last month as higher estimated area from the June 30 Acreage report boosts production prospects. Corn supplies are projected at 14.1 million bushels, up 335 million bushels from 2008/09. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is raised 50 million bushels as increased supplies and lower prices are expected to boost feeding demand. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 35 million bushels reflecting lower expected use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are raised 50 million bushels as lower prices increase the competitiveness of U.S. supplies in the world market. Ending stocks are projected at 1.6 million bushels, up 460 million from last month, but down 220 million from 2008/09. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price for corn is projected at $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel, down 55 cents on both ends of the range.
Analyst Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions says probably the biggest surprise in the report was no increase in the yield estimate from last month for either corn (153.4 bu/ac) or soybeans (42.6 bu/ac). “I think some of us believe we will see in future reports that yield per acre being increased as we’ve had very good growing conditions, lot of moisture and crop condition ratings very high,” Hoops said in a conference call this morning for the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. “So we do look for this crop to grow in subsequent reports.”
Hoops says if we have very high ratings for corn during the pollination time, which is coming up in the next week or so, we can expect a “very large corn crop.”
Posted By Cindy July 9, 2009
The corn crop may be a little behind in progress, but it is looking mighty good out there.
According to USDA’s crop progress and condition report from Sunday, 71 percent of the corn remains in good to excellent condition nationwide, just a one percent drop from the previous week and almost 10 percent better than last year at this time.
Silking progress is behind normal for this time of year, at just eight percent compared to the 16 percent average, but it is ahead of last year and all indications are that it will catch up just fine, thank you very much. Reports from around the country are showing great progress. South Dakota’s corn crop grew an average of 9 inches last week, up to 25 inches, which is still behind normal but the weather is expected to continue being favorable for good growth. In Minnesota, the corn is averaging 42 inches, just an inch below normal.
All this points to possibly an even bigger corn crop than last year, according to some estimates. USDA will issue the latest official forecast Friday morning.
Posted By Cindy June 30, 2009
USDA’s planted acreage report out this morning estimates the second largest corn crop since 1946 at 87.0 million acres, up 1 percent from last year but 7 percent below 2007.
Analysts are calling the report bearish for corn futures, according to Dow Jones, which quotes Country Hedging analyst Sterling Smith saying, “We do have a monster crop out there.”
Analysts said the report showed that the USDA underestimated acreage in its March planting intentions report. The trade has for weeks been expecting a loss of corn acreage of 1 million acres or more, although in recent days there has been increased talk about a more modest reduction or even an increase.
For soybeans, USDA says farmers have planted a record-high 77.5 million acres, up 1.8 million acres from last year and up 1.5 million acres – almost two percent – from the March estimate. Despite the increases in both crops, total U.S. crop area is down 1.2 percent from last year.
The corn crop is also doing better than last year in some of the major states. The Iowa Corn Growers Association reports that crop conditions are far better than last year. “According to the Iowa Secretary of Agriculture, nearly all corn planted in Iowa has emerged with 81% of the crop rated excellent and an average height of 37 inches- well above “knee high by the 4th of July.” The extended weather outlook seems favorable for near-perfect corn growing weather.”
Progress in the states where corn planting was delayed by wet weather is behind normal, but the crop is still in good shape. Illinois and Indiana are reporting the crop running a little slow but the condition is rated around 60 percent good to excellent.
Posted By Cindy June 25, 2009
If you are aching to find out more about ACRE – there is a wealth of information available, but time is running out so you have to act quickly to learn about this new and rather complex program.
USDA launched a major educational campaign this week to get the word out to producers about this 2008 Farm Bill that gives producers an additional option to help manage the risks associated with farming.
Farm Service Agency Administrator Doug Caruso says farmers are interested in learning more about the program. “I think there is a lot of curiosity because it is a new twist and because there is a very clear option or choice here,” he says. “It is true that it is somewhat more confusing or complicated.”
Caruso held five public meetings in two states this week and more are being planned. “Every opportunity that we get, we will be talking about this and we are also looking at other mechanisms to communicate with our producers about the ACRE program.”
The National Corn Growers Association is doing its part to educate producers as well by co-sponsoring a DTN webinar scheduled for July 1. The online discussion will feature Ohio State University economist Carl Zulauf as well as Farm Service Agency’s top ACRE experts Brad Karmen and Brent Orr. This learning session is free and open to the public.
Sign up for the webinar here.
NCGA has also prepared an analysis of the ACRE program compared to the traditional Counter Cyclical Payment Program. The document analysis compares landowner ACRE and CCP program returns for both share and cash rent agreements under a base 2009 Expected Payout per Planted ACRE, and three other alternatives.
Read the NCGA analysis in PDF form here.
Posted By Cindy June 1, 2009
It’s June 1 and according to USDA, 93 percent of the corn crop is now planted, about four percent below average for this time of year. Mostly everyone is done or at least over 90 percent – except Illinois, Indiana and North Dakota, which all got about 20 percent more planted last week.
Illinois now has 82 percent of the corn crop planted, Indiana stands at 78 percent and North Dakota at 84 percent. Meanwhile, soybean planting is running significantly behind in all of those states at this point and corn emergence is only about half of what it should be by now. But, nationwide, emergence is at 73 percent which is two percent ahead of last year at this time, although still behind the five year average by 13 percent.
Despite that, the experts are optimistic. “As we proved last year, we can’t really write this off until the planting season’s over, and we have seen a good turnaround in corn,” said USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We are looking at a good crop despite all the problems getting it in the ground with 70 percent rated good to excellent and only four percent poor to very poor.” Last year at this time just 63 percent was rated good to excellent.
Posted By Cindy May 26, 2009
While most of the country was on holiday for the Memorial Day weekend, the nation’s farmers were hard at work, planting while the sun was shining and the ground was reasonably dry.
Illinois and Indiana played catch-up last week and made significant progress, although they are still running behind normal for this time of year. According to USDA, another 42 percent of the crop was planted in Illinois, to bring the total up to 62 percent, while Indiana is now at 55 percent. North Dakota also made some serious progress last week, with over 60 percent now planted. All three states are still about 30 percent behind, but the nation as a whole is only down about ten percent from the five year average. Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska are running right on schedule with planting almost complete.
If the weather cooperates this week, we could very well see farmers pretty well caught up by this time next week.
Posted By Cindy May 14, 2009
The administration’s budget for USDA in 2010 is kind of like a good news, bad news scenario for agriculture. The good news is that President Obama has proposed an increase in overall spending for USDA. The bad news is that it cuts spending for farm programs, placing a hard cap of commodity program payments of $250,000, phasing out direct payments to farmers with gross sales over $500,000 and making cuts in the federal crop insurance program.
During a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing this week, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack acknowledged that the proposal is meeting resistance from agricultural groups. “We’re willing to work with Congress on this,” Vilsack said. “There has been a lot of conversation about whether or not it ought to be adjusted gross income as opposed to gross sales. We’re certainly happy to look at that. We’re also certainly happy to look at the hard cap of $250,000.” Vilsack says they want to maintain a good safety net for farmers but at the same time wants that to be fiscally responsible.
National Corn Growers Association First Vice President Darrin Ihnen says the areas targeted by the president’s budget are alarming. “In agriculture today it is relatively common to see gross annual sales of over $500,000, but that does not mean net income,” said Ihnen. “Our growers need a strong safety net and our industry will be weakened if the government begins to cut crop insurance funding and basing payment eligibility on rules that ignore production costs and long term business investment.”
NCGA earlier this year joined a coalition of national farm and agricultural groups to oppose President Obama’s proposal.
Posted By Cindy May 12, 2009
USDA released its initial assessment of crop supply, demand and price prospects for the 2009/10 season on Tuesday.
According to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, total U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected to be three percent higher than the current year with higher expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and exports more than offsetting a decline in projected feed and residual use.
Total usage in the FSI category use is projected seven percent higher with a 350-million-bushel rise in ethanol corn use accounting for most of the increase. The 4.1 billion bushel estimate for ethanol reflects the increase in the Renewable Fuels Standard, as well as improved blending incentives as higher gasoline prices increase demand for ethanol.
At the same time, exports are projected to increase by nine percent “as world corn trade and feeding are expected to recover
modestly in 2009/10, partly reflecting a reduction in global supplies of low-cost feed quality wheat.”
Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected down 2 percent with reduced animal numbers and increased availability of distiller’s grains. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected down 28 percent to 1.1 billion bushels as use is expected to exceed production by 470 million bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.70 to $4.50 per bushel compared with the record $4.20 reported for 2007/08 and the $4.10 to $4.30 projected for 2008/09.
However, the continued cool and wet spring conditions are causing concerns as planting is behind in many states, according to USDA chief economist Joe Glauber. “The real concern there is what is going to happen over the next couple of weeks in the Midwest which has received a lot of wet weather making it hard for farmers to get in the fields, particularly in the Eastern part of the corn belt,” said Glauber.
The latest planting progress update has less than half of the nation’s corn crop planted, which is the same as last year at this time, but well behind the five year average of 71 percent. The biggest concerns are Illinois and Indiana, with just about ten percent of the crop in the ground – compared to over 55 percent last year and the average of 70-85 percent. Another problem area is North Dakota with only seven percent complete. However, Glauber is hopeful progress can still be made quickly. “We’ve seen with the equipment we have today you can get almost half your crop planted in a week of good weather, so I think that’s all we need,” said Glauber.
But, the forecast is calling for more rainfall in the Midwest this week and if that continues it could potentially lead to lower yields down the road.
Posted By Cindy April 9, 2009
The April World Supply and Demand report out today from USDA lowers ending stocks for corn, wheat and soybeans more than most analysts were expecting.
Corn ending stocks were cut by 40 million bushels “as higher expected feed and residual use more than offsets a reduction in food, seed and industrial use.”
Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels as March 1 stocks indicated higher-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels with lower projected use for starch (other than for fuel and beverage alcohol) more than offsetting higher expected use for sweeteners.
The 2008/09 season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.00 to $4.40 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. This compares with the 2007/08 record of $4.20 per bushel.
Posted By Cindy March 31, 2009
USDA’s forecast for planted acreage this spring is not very different than last year – corn down just one percent and soybeans up only slightly.
According to the Prospective Plantings report issued this morning, USDA says corn growers “intend to plant 85.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2009, down 1 percent from last year as lower corn prices and unstable input costs are discouraging some growers from planting corn.” That would still be the third largest acreage since 1949, behind 2007 and 2008.
Expected acreage is down from last year in many States, however, producers in the 10 major corn-producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) collectively intend to plant 66.3 million acres, up slightly from the 66.1 million acres planted last year.
Many forecasters were predicting a larger drop in corn acreage and a much bigger increase in soybeans – as much as six percent. Still, USDA is calling for 76.0 million acres of soybeans in 2009 which would be the largest on record.
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