A highlight for the 2012 Export Exchange this week in Minneapolis was a presentation by USDA Chief Economist Dr. Joe Glauber on the supply and demand outlook for coarse grains, both in the United States and globally.
Needless to say, much of his focus was on the impact on this year’s drought in the U.S. “What looked like was going to be a great year, good soil moisture, ideal weather to plant, largest area since the ’30s for corn and what we thought would be record yields, turned out we had one of the worst droughts we’ve seen in many years,” said Glauber, who gave a detailed explanation of how the drought developed over the year all over the country, impacting yields for corn, soybeans and other crops.
Glauber pointed out how while the U.S. corn crop is down this year, global production has done very well. “The rest of the world production actually went up a little this year,” he said, despite declines in the Ukraine due to a drought.
Meanwhile, demand has remained strong, bringing stocks to a very low level. “I do think this is a situation that can turn around pretty rapidly,” Glauber noted. “If we get this sort of area planted next year and more return to trend yields, we should see substantial stock building in the U.S.”
Dr. Glauber also spent several minutes of his presentation discussing how the drought has influenced ethanol production this year, as well as some insight on the blend wall and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
Listen to Dr. Glauber’s entire presentation here: Joe Glauber at Export Exchange
You can find photos from this years Export Exchange here: 2012 Export Exchange