In the face of bad news for the general economy in the United States, agriculture is looking pretty good.
Last week we heard that U.S. economic growth dropped to just 1.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, compared to 3.7 percent for the first three months, and some say it could be below one percent next quarter. Meanwhile, unemployment continues to flirt with double digits, riding at 9.5 percent overall.
But the agricultural sector is showing a significant increase in both farm income and exports. It’s all up about 23-24 percent compared to last year. Granted, last year was down 20 percent from the year before, which was a record for exports and near record for farm income. But, it definitely spells R-E-C-O-V-E-R-Y, unlike the rest of the economy, despite the best of efforts to make that happen.
“The great thing about this recovery is that it’s sector-wide,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack in a press conference today about the new reports. “While an increase in the value of livestock production accounted for much of the upward movement, the value of dairy production rose by 26.2 percent; the value of meat animal production is up 14.6 percent, and the value of poultry and egg production rose 8.4 percent.” That’s all good news for corn farmers.
USDA increased its forecast for 2010 exports by $3 billion compared to May to $107.5 billion, due mostly to greater grain and feed shipments and higher values along with increased livestock, poultry, and dairy product exports. “Agriculture is one of the few major sectors of the economy today that has a trade surplus, which we are now forecasting to be a little over $30 billion,” said Vilsack. That is also forecast to get even better next year, up to $113 billion, very close to the record $115 in 2008, thanks to sharply higher unit values and volumes for wheat and corn, as well as increases in products like distillers’ dried grains (DDGS). Vilsack points out that every billion dollars in agricultural exports supports over 8,000 jobs and generates an additional $1.4 billion in economic activity.
Kind of makes you wonder where our economy would be right now without farmers and ranchers, doesn’t it? Vilsack noted the significance of the “underlying values of rural America and its farmers and ranchers to the resilience of the agriculture sector.” In other words, farmers and ranchers are not afraid of hard work, they have kept their debt below that of the rest of the economic sectors, and they continue to increase productivity through innovation and research.
It is really a very simple solution to economic problems. Hard work + low debt + increased productivity = economic recovery. The rest of the economy certainly could learn a lot from the farm.
“Remarkable” is how USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey describes the progress of this year’s corn crop.
“The corn crop, as of August 22, already passing the halfway mark for dented. That’s pretty remarkable for this early in the season,” Rippey says. In fact, 54 percent of the crop is dented, according to USDA’s latest report, compared to 37 percent for the five year average. Eight percent of the crop is mature, which is two points ahead of average and well ahead of last year at this time. USDA is not yet reporting harvest numbers, but states like North Carolina where over 70 percent of the crop is mature have already been combining for a couple of weeks now. Unfortunately, that state’s crop is in the poorest condition of all the states, with just 28 percent rated good to excellent – and most of that is just in the good category.
Nationwide, the crop is rated 70 percent good to excellent, with the Dakotas and Colorado over 80 percent. Even Iowa’s crop is still rated almost 70 percent good to excellent. ”Even though some areas of the State have continued to receive crop damage, the over all crop conditions remain in pretty good shape,” commented Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, who is a corn farmer himself. Farmers in the area are optimistic, according to the Iowa Corn Growers Association.
Dean Taylor, a corn and soybean farmer from Prairie City, Iowa and president-elect of the Iowa Corn Growers Association has been affected by the floods. “Three weeks ago, our crops looked great. We were looking at 200 bushels per acre corn and above, but now even non-flooded fields that received 10-15 inches of rain in one week might top out at 120 to 130 bushels per acre. I think we’ve learned from 1993, that rain does not always make grain,” explained Taylor.
The weather has been drier over the past week, which has helped out quite a bit, and the crop looks like it could very well be a record as USDA is predicting.
Ok, anyone besides me get a little irked when the Chicago Board of Trade and others read the USDA crop report like it was from Moses coming down the mountain? If people could predict crops with high levels of accuracy the board of trade would be a ghost town.
The traders and speculators would cash in, check out, and be sipping umbrella drinks in Tahiti.
Today’s crop report triggered all kinds of news stories and messaging in social media that all read like the crop of 2010 was in the bin. Just a note for future reference a corn crop isn’t made in June, July or even August. It is cumulative.
Corn production is forecast at a record high 13.4 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous record set in 2009. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average a record high 165.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last year’s record of 164.7.
However every stage from planting to ear set to pollination is critical. And so is ear filling. August is traditionally the time when a crop is polished off…the shine is put on the apple so to speak. The size of the ears is already determined but the final yield depends on the number of kernels developed and its weight and size. The size of the kernel is still on the bubble for the 2010 crop in many areas.
For much of this key kernel filling stage many key corn production states have been experiencing severe heat and in some cases accompanying dry conditions.
Then why have we been doing these reports since 1863? Apparently President Abraham Lincoln was swayed by USDA’s contention (actually included in the first report) that “Ignorance of the state of our crops invariably leads to speculation in which the farmer does not obtain just prices and by which the consumer is not benefitted.”
It is hard to argue with that. I prefer to think of the report as a compass that helps point the way but you may be stopping to ask for directions before you reach your final destination.
At the end of the day the news is good. We will once again be blessed with an abundant harvest and it appears prices will be good enough to pay the bills and sustain family farmers for another year.
“In the last 50 years, generally speaking, people have become much more lax about their moral code concerning sex and much more restrictive about their moral code concerning food.” – Mary Eberstadt, author of “The Loser Letters”
“The New Food Puritans” is a fascinating article on a website I just found called “Truth in Food.” The post is great, but the full interview with author Mary Eberstadt is even better and well worth 22 minutes of your listening time. Besides being an author, Eberstadt is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and consulting editor to the Institution’s bimonthly Policy Review
The post and interview are based on an essay Eberstadt wrote last year called “Is Food the New Sex?” which puts forth the premise that while modern society places no restrictions on sexual behaviors – anything goes because it is just “personal choice” – today’s new moralists are instead judgmental about the food choices people make. That is, we have mindless sex but mindful eating. “I find it really interesting that these two codes, one about food and one about sex, seem to be existing in this inverse relationship, where as one gets stricter the other gets more lenient,” she says in the interview.
Very interesting theory put forth by a very intelligent lady with strong conservative Christian values. There is some other great stuff on the “Truth in Food” website worth a read – like “The Ten Reasons Why They Hate You So” – They being the anti-production agriculture movement and You being – farmers. Be sure to read the comments on that one too – seemed to touch a pretty raw nerve with some folks! You can also find Truth in Food on Facebook. Thanks to my friend Ray Bowman with the Kentucky Sheep and Goat Development Office for pointing me in their direction!
My brother-in-law recently asked me why ethanol had a great reputation for two decades and suddenly seems to be getting pounded constantly, especially in editorial/opinion pages by the media.
He doesn’t have a farming background and isn’t invested in the ethanol industry so he is a neutral and somewhat uninformed observer. He is also one of the busiest guys I know so for him to notice it means the anti-ethanol crowd are now officially pervasive. Apparently, it’s not just me feeling paranoid.
The conversation came back to me in a hurry this week with the latest “ethanol is evil” Tsunami rolling across the country once again. It started with the Wall Street Journal (No link here because you have to pay for this tripe) and the Washington Post and worked its way across the country hitting the Chicago Tribune and Des Moines Register yesterday and likely making its way for the West Coast like some cheap traveling circus.
And like the aforementioned Circus the anti-ethanol gang leave a trail behind much like Barnum and Bailey’s elephants only there is no guy with a shovel and bucket cleaning up in their wake. They leave their load of “misinformation” to fester in the road in full knowledge that most people are also too busy to check the veracity of their propaganda.
The public lynching of ethanol began with the bogus food vs. fuel charade in 2008 and since then has continued to resurface over and over again in several different guises that get trotted out and recycled whenever opportunity presents itself.
Several things remain consistent as the attacks continue. The noxious cocktail they serve up is made with equal parts of the best bad science money can buy and poor logic. And the olive on the toothpick seems to be just plain old avarice.
That’s greed, materialism, or covetousness with a Capital “C.” The people fanning the fires of these attacks have rationale and motivation that are simple if not transparent. They are the folks that want the cheapest corn possible because it boosts their profits; want ethanol to be made from another source; or want ethanol crippled forever because the market share just got too big.
So, for the next couple of days come back here and you will get a sneak peak each day of some of these players and the Machiavellian games they play and fund all to snuff out the only real competition that imported petroleum faces in the marketplace today…ethanol.
Despite heavy rains and some brutal summer heat, the corn crop nationwide looks great.
According to the latest USDA report out this week, 72 percent of the crop is rated good to excellent, with a few more percentage points moving over to the excellent side. On the progress side, 84 percent of the crop is silking – compared to 70 percent average and 52 percent last year, and 17 percent is in the dough stage already, which is 10 points ahead of this time last year and a few points ahead of normal.
Only two of the major corn production states – Colorado and South Dakota – have not yet reached the halfway point in silking, according to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey. “If you’re looking for problems with the corn, you’ll have to go to the fringes of the corn belt, well outside the major production zone,” he said. “In North Carolina, where it’s been very hot and dry, for example – 38 percent of the crop rated very poor to poor.”
The good-looking corn pictured here is growing near Bloomington – a photo taken recently by Tricia Braid-Terry of the Illinois Corn Growers’ staff. The good-looking young man in the the photo is her son, Ian. Thanks, Tricia!
Farming on any scale much larger than a backyard garden – even a big garden for that matter – is a business and as such it must turn a profit at the end of the day to survive, if not prosper. It doesn’t matter if you are growing corn or tomatoes. This may seem like clear logic, but in truth most urbanites don’t understand the complexities of how food is grown, processed, packaged, and transported to their door.
In our society we will spend ludicrous sums on money on things like cars, cell phones, or even a cup of trendy coffee, yet we continue to demand access to all the bounty Mother Nature has to offer at discount prices.
It is a modern miracle that the largest consumptive offenders on the planet – Americans – also have the cheapest food supply on terra firma. We spend less than 10% of our disposable income on actual food items compared to other developed nations that spend as much as 15% to 50% of what they earn to put food on the table.
There are numerous factors that make this access to cheap and abundant food possible including a wildly productive agricultural core that produces key crops like wheat, corn, and soybeans. These staple crops provide the very foundation of the “real” food pyramid. These are crops that we have learned to grow fairly predictably on a large scale even when Mother Nature hits us with challenging weather. In the worst-case scenario when weather, insects or disease reduces the size of these crops we have a certain amount in reserve.
However, with a growing emphasis on more fruits and vegetable in our diet, there are also those calling for more and more taxpayers dollars to shift from existing farm programs to encourage and expand farmers markets and produce production. Striking a reasonable balance won’t be easy but it will be critical.
While many produce items have a shelf life of weeks or months at best, corn, soybeans and wheat can be transported more readily and stored for years. The authors of the original farm bill understood this and chose to put their emphasis and limited budget into programs that help growers of these keystone crops make it through tough times.
Times have changed and the farm bill is antiquated in many ways, but the importance of these key crops has not waned. The farm bill in the U.S. is not a perfect piece of legislation, few are that have become this big and cumbersome.
But today’s “farm bill” is a misnomer since the lion’s share of the expenditures go to social programs like women, infant and children, school lunches, food stamps and even forestry. Yet critics like to cultivate the illusion that it all goes to farmers.
As we continue to analyze and discuss these consumer support programs – yes, it is a consumer program that helps guarantees you the aforementioned cheap food over the long haul – it is important we do a little homework before making wholesale changes.
In the interim keep this in mind; if we stopped growing green beans or carrots tomorrow the world would not end. But if we see big reductions in crops like corn, soybeans or wheat the loss of essential oils, protein and other precious calories would change the food universe as you know it. Likely wouldn’t do our economy or our balance of trade much good either.
Many of our livestock producers today are family owned and operated ventures that make their animal’s care, health, and comfort a priority. In this age of worst case scenarios getting the limelight it was refreshing to come across a very accurate and honest view of the nation’s livestock producers.
Given the extreme stories, messages and views that pound us every day from dozens of information sources in this wired world, I think we all need a reprieve. We all need places to go for perspective and this is particularly true regarding livestock production. Given the antics of lobbying groups like the Humane Society of the U.S., that disguise themselves as an animal welfare group, journalists like Michael Pollan giving advice on feeding cattle, and chef’s promoting specific crop and livestock rearing practices with no real education on the subject..it makes me want to scream.
Type the letters “Mi” into Google and Pollan’s name pops up and this crank – possibly well-meaning but still a crank – comes up immediately showing the influence he is having on society via the New York Times Best Seller List, rather than logging years nurturing cows or sweating in a cattle feedlot.
All of the above scenarios are roughly equivalent to going to a plumber for advice on brain surgery. I would certainly prefer to know my meat/protein comes from well managed family operations like David Fremark’s in St. Lawrence, South Dakota or Jamie Willret of Malta, Illinois referenced in the above blog. You will find farmers and ranchers outside the city limits of most any town or city. In fact these days you can find many of them as close as your laptop or smart phone via social media. #agchat on twitter is a great place to ask a question on almost anything related to farming and food production. I encourage you to start a dialogue.
Lack of knowledge on how livestock specifically and agriculture in general works is a huge risk for society today. Uniformed people make bad decisions and in this case potentially decisions that are irreparable as family farms don’t come back once they are gone.
A University of Chicago economist says banning the herbicide Atrazine would add to the current unemployment level in the United States.
According to University of Chicago economist Don Coursey, a ban on the herbicide would cost between 21,000 and 48,000 jobs from corn production losses alone. His findings were presented today at a National Press Club briefing sponsored by the Triazine Network in Washington. Coursey estimates atrazine’s annual production value to corn alone to be between $2.3 billion and $5 billion. Atrazine’s additional value to sorghum, sugar cane and other uses increases these totals.
Coursey says his estimate of job losses would be primarily in the agriculture and rural sectors of the economy, where unemployment is currently about 12 percent. A ban on atrazine he says would increase that to about 14.6 percent. Another way of looking at it, says Coursey, is assuming that all the job losses would occur in the corn-growing sector of the nation. “Starting from the current unemployment rate of about 11%, you double that either to 10.9 plus 11, or as much as an increase of 25% more. That is, 11 plus 25 or into the high 30% unemployment rate in the corn sector. That’s why I feel justified in using the word devastating,” he said. Most of that would be felt by small family farmers.
The Triazine Network is made up of groups representing crops as diverse as citrus, grapes, grain sorghum, nuts, corn, nursery crops, fruits, vegetables, Christmas trees, soybeans and sugarcane that have banded together to respond to the special review of triazine herbicides by the EPA. Kansas Corn Growers executive director Jere White serves as chairman of the group. “No one cares more about the safety of agricultural pesticides than farmers who use them on their farms. It’s where we live and where we raise our children,” said White. “If sound scientific research finds that atrazine, or any agricultural pesticide, cannot be used safely we will be the first to agree with increased regulation. But sound scientific research has found repeatedly that atrazine is safe.” White says the current re-review of atrazine has been prompted by activist-fed media reports and shoddy science.
EPA re-registered atrazine in 2006 based on the evidence of nearly 6,000 studies and more than 80,000 public comments. However, the agency began an additional, unscheduled review of atrazine in late 2009. Atrazine is the second most-used herbicide in the United States, controlling a broad range of weeds in corn, sorghum and sugar cane for over 50 years. No suitable replacement for it currently exists in terms of efficacy and affordability.
If you have watched any of the World Cup soccer tournament, you no doubt heard that incessant sound make by blowing the noisemakers known as “vuvuzelas” that were popularized by South African soccer fans. The plastic blowing horns produce a loud, distinctive monotone note that some people say sounds like the constant droning of a huge swarm of bees.
Critics of corn – whether it be ethanol, sweetener, or just farming in general – can sometimes sound like the constant droning of vuvuzelas, churning out the same old tired arguments in a loud, distinctive monotone. Looking through my Google alerts for ethanol over the holiday weekend I found a number of articles and blog postings that use those vuvuzela-type arguments. When the stories offer a place for comments, I always look to see what is being said and may offer some comment of my own to try and break through that monotony.
About a dozen corn grower states recently got some social media training by AgChat expert Michele Payn-Knoper. While much of that training focuses on how you can use social media tools like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter to tell the positive story of agriculture to the general public, it also involves taking the initiative to set the record straight when you see agriculture being attacked in on-line stories. It has never been any easier to provide your own editorial comments than it is today with stories found on-line. No printing or stamps involved, no letters to mail, no gatekeeper (in most cases) to edit or silence your point of view. There may be moderation for some comments (which is highly encouraged, if you have or want to start your own blog) but usually comments are approved. The moderation is mainly to prevent spam comments from getting through.
My point is – make some of your own noise! The articles I saw had NO opposing viewpoints from corn growers or their advocates. Take some time once a week to browse through on-line articles that are critical of farming or ethanol or corn products and make your voice heard. Sign up for Google alerts for corn, farming or ethanol so you know what is being said and respond. The forum is there, we need to utilize it.
But the agricultural sector is showing a significant increase in both farm income and exports. It’s all up about 23-24 percent compared to last year. Granted, last year was down 20 percent from the year before, which was a record for exports and near record for farm income. But, it definitely spells R-E-C-O-V-E-R-Y, unlike the rest of the economy, despite the best of efforts to make that happen. 
“The corn crop, as of August 22, already passing the halfway mark for dented. That’s pretty remarkable for this early in the season,” Rippey says. In fact, 54 percent of the crop is dented, 
According to the latest 
According to University of Chicago economist Don Coursey, a ban on the herbicide would cost between 21,000 and 48,000 jobs from corn production losses alone. His 
If you have watched any of the