Corn Commentary

Outlook on Corn Production

The big guessing game of how much corn and soybeans will be grown this year continues. Weather has been out of the ordinary in some regions and it’s interesting to note that some midwest areas have been having one of the coolest summers on record. So what should people know about where we’re at and why should they care?

Last year we heard all kinds of hysteria over turning corn into ethanol and that somehow that was like taking food out of the mouths of people. Pure emotional tripe but fueled by fear mongers with an agenda. Facts weren’t important to them but time and the truth does tend to show how false a lot of those claims were. So it is important for consumers to get good information to not only educate them but alleviate fears they may have.

So, how are things looking this year? USDA releases “official” production estimates but a lot of analysts produce their own. This post started when I read the latest outlook from Farm Futures.

Bumper corn and soybean crops are still possible in 2009, despite a very unusual growing season, according to the latest Farm Futures survey of U.S. farmers.

Corn production could reach 12.545 billion, the second biggest crop in history, with soybeans setting an all-time high at 3.275 billion.

USDA reports 2009 production Aug. 12, in a widely anticipated release that features the agency’s first estimates based on in-field surveys, not statistical guesses. The government also will update acreage for corn in seven states where planting delays made its June 30 estimates uncertain.

Farm Futures found a 2 million acre drop in corn plantings from USDA’s June survey, with the total falling to 85.04 million. But farmers also reported above average yields of 160.3 bpa, compared to the current USDA statistical guess of 153.4. Farm Futures production estimate is 255 million above the July government forecast.

Farm Futures put the average U.S. soybean yield at 42.8 bpa, slightly higher than USDA’s trend forecast.

Sounds to me like we’re going to have enough corn and soybeans to meet food, fuel and export demand. Hopefully that will relieve your worries.

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